Luke Slater @Luke_Slats
Cover Club @CoverTheClub
Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys | 5:50am EST Thursday |Brisbane
Broncos +1.5 (-110) Cowboys -1.5 (-115)
The Cowboys and Broncos rivalry has been one of the most exciting over the last 5-10 years, coming to a head at their 2015 Grand Final face off, personally my second favorite Grand Final of all time. Unfortunately, both teams’ Grand Final dreams for 2020 were quickly erased, making this game far from high-stakes. Cowboys sit 14th on the ladder, with the second worst defense for the season. Broncos sit dead last on the ladder and in points allowed for the season. With that being said, Cowboys season was much more respectable than the Broncos embarrassment.
Tip: Cowboys -1.5 and over
Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights | 4:00am EST Friday | Gold Coast
Titans +4.0 (-110) Knights -4.0 (-110)
Titans continued their solid finish to the season, beating Manly quite convincingly 42-24, all while being +5.5 in the spread. This is now four games in a row covering the spread, and 7-2-0 since the hire of their new head coach, Justin Holbrook. Gold Coast started the season 1-5 but are now a chance of finishing the season with five consecutive wins.
Knights recorded a comfortable win over struggling Dragons last week, 42-18. This week, they are playing for a home final, which is critical for a deep run in the finals. They will be boosted by the return of rising star Bradman Best and dummy half Kurt Mann. Knights have been solid over the last six games, going 5-1-0 ATS. The one game they failed to cover, however, was a 42-12 loss to third place Roosters.
Tip: Can picture this being an arm wrestle, under 43.5
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters | 5:55am EST Friday | Sydney
Rabbitohs +13.5 (-130) Roosters -13.5 (EVEN)
The oldest rivalry in Rugby League continues, as Rabbitohs host the Roosters. Both teams have secured their spot for finals football and will be keen to head into the first week of finals with a win. Rabbitohs have been up and down all season, especially after losing their start fullback for the remainder of the year. Souths kept Parramatta to nil, while piling on 38 points in late August. However, just last week, they lose 26-16 to 15th placed Bulldogs.
Roosters have awoken from their mid-season slumber since their loss to Melbourne back in early August. Roosters are 5-0-0 ATS in the five games since, scoring an average of 38 points per game.
Tip: Keen on over 44.5 & Roosters -13.5
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers | 5:55am EST Friday | Sydney
Bulldogs +14.5 (-105) Panthers -14.5 (-125)
Bulldogs pulled off a nice upset last week over Rabbitohs, winning 26-16. This snapped a seven game losing streak for the club and lifts them off last place on the ladder. They might be without key halfback, Lachlan Lewis as he recovers from last week’s head knock.
Panthers locked up the minor premiership last week, with their 32-12 win over Cowboys. They are entering the finals in great form, going 6-2-0 ATS in the past eight matches. Panthers did manage to rest some key players last week, and likely they will rest some players for this match.
Tip: Staying clear of the spread, however like this to be under 45.5
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders | 1:00am EST Saturday | Sydney
Sharks +10.5 (-110) Raiders -10.5 (-110)
Sharks had a nightmare game against the Roosters, losing 34-18. Shaun Johnson, who leads the competition in try assists, suffered a snapped Achilles and starts a long road to recovery. He was the key to unlocking Sharks attack, and a big reason Sharks sit fifth in points for the season. Sharks do have young talent; however, the lack of experience will handicap the side for the Finals.
Raiders patchy run to the Finals continued last week, in an odd game against Warriors last Sunday. Raiders struggled to find their groove, as their halfback exited the game early with a head knock, Jack Wighton then sent to the sin bin for 10 mins, and a 7-1 penalty against their favor, all in the first half. They were able to regroup and get the win, however are 1-3-0 ATS in their last four games.
Tip: Over 44.5
Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels | 3:30am EST Saturday | Sydney
Tigers +9.5 (-115) Eels -9.5 (-115)
Wests Tigers put up a pretty poor performance against the Storm last week, losing 50-22. With that result, they slump to 2-7-0 ATS in their past nine matches, and seven losses over that same stretch.
Although Eels walked away with a win last week, bettors will have taken careful notes. Eels have struggled to score as of late, and only managed 26 points against bottom placed Broncos, who average 31 points in defense per game. Eels have average just shy of 14 points per game over the past eight matches. They are also 1-7-0 ATS over those matches. On the surface, Eels are sitting in third place on the ladder, however only average 10.5 against teams in the top four.
Tip: Two teams that have been profitable to fade – taking under 41.5
New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles | 5:35am EST Saturday | Central Coast
Warriors +4.5 (-115) Sea Eagles -4.5 (-105)
Warriors tough 2020 season comes to an end against a struggling Manly side. The New Zealand side have been separated from their friends and family back home for nearly four months and have outperformed throughout. They have been profitable for punters, going 8-1-0 ATS over the past nine games. They unfortunately lost star fullback, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, to a hamstring injury last week and will be without his expertise for the last match of their season.
Manly welcomed back their own star fullback from injury last week, only to see him suffer a shoulder injury and is set to miss this week’s clash. Overall, a poor season for the club, winning one of their last eight games, covering the spread only twice in those games.
Tip: Warriors +142
Saint George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm | 2:05am EST Sunday |Sydney
Dragons +11.5 (EVEN) Storm -11.5 (-120)
Dragons steep decline to the season continued with a 42-18 loss to Knights last week. That is now four matches in a row the club has failed to cover the spread and only 2-7-0 ATS in their past nine. It looks likely they will debut two new young guns in this week’s clash against Storm.
Storm continue their attacking brilliance, scoring 50 points against Tigers last week. They are averaging 30.5 points in attack over the last nine games, however still leaking points on defense. I would not be surprised if Storm cover 43.5 spread by themselves.
Tip: Very keen on Storm -11.5 and over 43.5