Week 2 of NFL is prime for over reactions in the betting markets. When your sample is one game, it’s hard to get a good reference point of how a team has performed. Not only that, no one really knows how much home field advantage is worth, with little to no crowds allowed into the stadium.
With all that being said, this is potentially the best week to find some value picks. I, an Aussie with a limited knowledge of NFL, will be go through what I will be betting on this week.
Sunday early games:
Steelers -7.0 against Denver Broncos
Steelers are coming off a Monday win over Giants in Big Ben’s return. Big Ben started the game slowly but quickly found his groove like clockwork. Meanwhile Broncos played in what was hopefully the ugliest game of the season, on Monday night as well, losing to Titans 16-14. Steelers and the points.
Cowboys -3.5 against Falcons
Cowboys had a rough loss last week, 17-20 against the LA Rams. Good news is that they played quite poorly yet were only a score away from winning. Zeke averaged 4.4 YPC, something the average guy off the street could do. Atlanta were middle of the pack last year in rush defense, so expect Zeke to improve this week.
Jaguars ML +275 against Titans
Jags got a handy win over Colts last week 27-20. Minshew was near perfect going 19/20. Hard to expect a repeat of this, but I’m hoping he can still be electric enough to get the upset.
Sunday Afternoon games:
Chiefs & Chargers over 47.5
Pat Mahomes scores points
Sunday night game:
Seahawks winning margin 13-18 +600 against Patriots
Seahawks were impressive week 1, beating Falcons by 13. Patriots showed that they have not missed a step since TB12 left and many of the players opted out this season. Rusty Wilson to have a big game and cover the -4.0 spread with ease is where I’ll be betting.